Post by First Mate DD on Jul 24, 2012 23:00:29 GMT -5
I've been wanting to do one of these for a while, and final 15 seems like an appropriate time to do it! If any of you have been remotely following confessionals, then you'll know that Phillip's fate is sealed this round, and he'll be in 16th place. That leaves just 15 players left- we're definitely approaching jury quickly here! Let's see how (I think) everyone's doing!
Blue Tribe
This tribe is, in my opinion, much stronger than the Red Tribe. They have the numbers advantage, stronger individual players, and more cohesion as a unit. I really don't see them going to tribal council, save for the case of a double TC.
You all know I'm going to have a good review of Bob Dawg. We're married, and he's on my fantasy team. He's been playing a solid game so far, but there are some issues I have with what he's been thinking. Firstly, I'm worried about the captain's curse. There's a reason they're normally pre-jury (shout out to Chase) and he may follow in that pattern. He has a lot of connections, but I'm not sure he's maintaining the right ones. He wants to blindside Coach, and stay tight with Judd, even though Coach is giving him attention and Judd told him he doesn't trust him! His having the idol is sort of out, as Judd and Kourtney know and haven't kept it entirely secret, but some people are still freaking out about where these idols are. He has a lot of room to improve or worsen his gameplay, depending on who he aligns himself with, and only time will tell!
Prediction: Mid-jury. Taken out for being an overall threat to win.
Coach is certainly an interesting case. I really didn't like him at first; I thought he was going to end up as one of those characters who doesn't really address the game. Coach has fulfilled that expectation on only one half, and thankfully it's the better end. Coach, in my opinion, has the best confessional of the entire cast. He's funny, insightful, analytical and he connects with the PWs well. The other contestants don't manage to do that as well. He's made himself a threat to a few people, but he has a lot of ties to old Desterrados, and that can help him a lot. One of his current problems is that he's trying to align himself with "the guys" (Mike, Dawg, Jay, Judd and Ted) but none of them really trust him. He's much better off with Mary and Kelly, and keeping good relationships with the guys. I know he said in his confessional that he'd do that, but I'm not so sure. Bob Dawg outlined a plan in which he would idol him out for the lulz, but I don't think he'd go through with it. With this tribe, I don't see him having too much trouble making merge.
Prediction: Finalist. I think he'll figure out where he needs to be, and make it to the end.
Eliza makes you go "awh" and "yay" at the same time. She's an "awh" because she has this fake idol that she's so convinced is real. That could definitely screw her over in the long run, though she may figure it out before she harms herself. She also makes you go "yay" because it's Vhauserman, and I don't think anyone's expected him to be doing so well. Eliza has a very strong alliance with Mike, who is pretty loyal and a strong competitor. She also has good connections with nearly all of old Desterrados. She has quite a few options in this game as long as she maintains her connections to Mike. Those two can easily make a powerful pair in this game if they play their cards right.
Prediction: Late Jury. I think she'll make it pretty far, but I don't think she'll wedge herself into the finals. Something will likely foil her game before then.
Frosti is at least 15th place. That's two better than Rory. Unfortunately, his position isn't going to get much better than that. His only real chance of survival is ousting Mike, and even that option is looking bleak. Coach wants him out, and he's an old Nesoi member. People want Nesoi gone- especially with this tribe where old Desterrados has numbers. I don't see him even being able to immunity sweep into merge, because I foresee a double tribal council in the future. His only real allies are both on the opposite tribe, and I have a feeling Coach's pull to get him out will seal his fate. I hope he finds a way out though. I love a good underdog story.
Prediction: Prejury. He won't make merge because this new blue tribe is destined to go to TC at least once, and he'll likely be the victim.
Kelly reminds me a lot of Charity, but I know it's not her unless you guys are terrible liars. She writes really raunchy and funny confessionals, and has a great social game to boot. Strategically, I'm not sure she's top of the notch, but her strategic mind is sufficient enough to compliment her stellar social game. She doesn't have very many people gunning for her, or at least any I can think of off the top of my head (maybe I should've read confessionals again before doing this.)
She does, however, have a few enemies. Her main ones are Kourtney and Semhar, neither of which she has the power to take out at this stage of the game. Her best move going forward is to remain social, remain reliable in challenges, and fortify her alliance with old Desterrados, namely Coach and Mary. She can secure herself in this game for a while by doing that.
Prediction: Finalist. I think she'll make the end with Coach, and their third. I don't think she can win in that scenario. Maybe she'll see that and take action, though.
Judd, in this game, is that stereotypical ass that you love to hate. He's extremely arrogant, mediocre in challenges, and is not afraid to tell people off. Okay, you guys probably just love him for all of those things, but he's beginning to bother me. He's actually been receiving a lot of information, but rather than taking it in, processing it, and using it down the road, he just likes to use it to exploit people now. He essentially told Dylan that he can't trust him, and Dylan doesn't even see that he needs to take out Judd. I think this will be revealed in time, however. Judd is only going to self-destruct, in my opinion. He's a huge blabbermouth, and that's going to be the death of him. Also, blabbermouth is not coming up as wrong in spell check. Score!
Prediction: Early Jury. He'll make merge because he's on the superior tribe, but will be taken out shortly after.
Mary started this game as someone I expected to slut her way into late prejury, and sort of disappear after that. I am pleasantly surprised to be wrong. Mary surprises me every day, and I really think she's going to do heavy damage in this game. Being leader and winning in Round 1 gave her a boost of confidence that was good for her game, but didn't bloat her ego. She's highly analytical, and is the only one to suspect Bob Dawg lying to Coach. That was a huge teller right there that she's a thinker. She updates her confessional frequently, and she's constantly evaluating her position in the game and with others. Her only real enemy is Semhar, who wants her out, but not that badly even. I don't think Mary is viewed as a threat by others in the way that Coach is, and he's on the verge of proposing an F2 to her. I predict their duo to be deadly and dominant. I know what that's like, after all
I think she's incredibly safe on the stronger, blue tribe, and has a solid wall of alliances to protect her throughout this game.
Prediction: Winner. Mary is not going to be seen as the threat that she is until it's too late, and I think she'll make a very strong jury case.
Mike is the strangest member of my Sausage Fantasy team, because I don't think he stands out a whole lot as a player. That's sort of why I picked him though. I've watched Clumbze, and for a good part of pre-jury, he turns into this chameleon and sort of disappears. He's somehow managed to do this on vacation, and seems to be in a place where he'll survive the vote when he eventually does go to tribal. I would be worried if his tribe loses this coming round, but I don't think they will. They can sit him out, and he'll be back before the next challenge. Coach will push for Frosti to go, and once he's back, he'll be crazy about reaffirming everything that he had when he left. He hasn't pissed anyone off, because no one blames him for vacation, and he still has a solid connection with most of old Desterrados, as well as the boys of old Gwadatoo. I think he'll find himself in a good position come merge, especially with his good friend Eliza.
Prediction: Late jury. I see him making it just as far as Eliza, really. They'll be taken out around then. He's in a great position now, though.
Red Tribe
This tribe is in trouble. Their members don't mesh because they are evenly split from the other tribes. As a whole, they are much weaker than Blue, and they are now down a member. I don't see many of them living to make merge. Maybe just about four of them.
Blue Tribe
This tribe is, in my opinion, much stronger than the Red Tribe. They have the numbers advantage, stronger individual players, and more cohesion as a unit. I really don't see them going to tribal council, save for the case of a double TC.
You all know I'm going to have a good review of Bob Dawg. We're married, and he's on my fantasy team. He's been playing a solid game so far, but there are some issues I have with what he's been thinking. Firstly, I'm worried about the captain's curse. There's a reason they're normally pre-jury (shout out to Chase) and he may follow in that pattern. He has a lot of connections, but I'm not sure he's maintaining the right ones. He wants to blindside Coach, and stay tight with Judd, even though Coach is giving him attention and Judd told him he doesn't trust him! His having the idol is sort of out, as Judd and Kourtney know and haven't kept it entirely secret, but some people are still freaking out about where these idols are. He has a lot of room to improve or worsen his gameplay, depending on who he aligns himself with, and only time will tell!
Prediction: Mid-jury. Taken out for being an overall threat to win.
Coach is certainly an interesting case. I really didn't like him at first; I thought he was going to end up as one of those characters who doesn't really address the game. Coach has fulfilled that expectation on only one half, and thankfully it's the better end. Coach, in my opinion, has the best confessional of the entire cast. He's funny, insightful, analytical and he connects with the PWs well. The other contestants don't manage to do that as well. He's made himself a threat to a few people, but he has a lot of ties to old Desterrados, and that can help him a lot. One of his current problems is that he's trying to align himself with "the guys" (Mike, Dawg, Jay, Judd and Ted) but none of them really trust him. He's much better off with Mary and Kelly, and keeping good relationships with the guys. I know he said in his confessional that he'd do that, but I'm not so sure. Bob Dawg outlined a plan in which he would idol him out for the lulz, but I don't think he'd go through with it. With this tribe, I don't see him having too much trouble making merge.
Prediction: Finalist. I think he'll figure out where he needs to be, and make it to the end.
Eliza makes you go "awh" and "yay" at the same time. She's an "awh" because she has this fake idol that she's so convinced is real. That could definitely screw her over in the long run, though she may figure it out before she harms herself. She also makes you go "yay" because it's Vhauserman, and I don't think anyone's expected him to be doing so well. Eliza has a very strong alliance with Mike, who is pretty loyal and a strong competitor. She also has good connections with nearly all of old Desterrados. She has quite a few options in this game as long as she maintains her connections to Mike. Those two can easily make a powerful pair in this game if they play their cards right.
Prediction: Late Jury. I think she'll make it pretty far, but I don't think she'll wedge herself into the finals. Something will likely foil her game before then.
Frosti is at least 15th place. That's two better than Rory. Unfortunately, his position isn't going to get much better than that. His only real chance of survival is ousting Mike, and even that option is looking bleak. Coach wants him out, and he's an old Nesoi member. People want Nesoi gone- especially with this tribe where old Desterrados has numbers. I don't see him even being able to immunity sweep into merge, because I foresee a double tribal council in the future. His only real allies are both on the opposite tribe, and I have a feeling Coach's pull to get him out will seal his fate. I hope he finds a way out though. I love a good underdog story.
Prediction: Prejury. He won't make merge because this new blue tribe is destined to go to TC at least once, and he'll likely be the victim.
Kelly reminds me a lot of Charity, but I know it's not her unless you guys are terrible liars. She writes really raunchy and funny confessionals, and has a great social game to boot. Strategically, I'm not sure she's top of the notch, but her strategic mind is sufficient enough to compliment her stellar social game. She doesn't have very many people gunning for her, or at least any I can think of off the top of my head (maybe I should've read confessionals again before doing this.)
She does, however, have a few enemies. Her main ones are Kourtney and Semhar, neither of which she has the power to take out at this stage of the game. Her best move going forward is to remain social, remain reliable in challenges, and fortify her alliance with old Desterrados, namely Coach and Mary. She can secure herself in this game for a while by doing that.
Prediction: Finalist. I think she'll make the end with Coach, and their third. I don't think she can win in that scenario. Maybe she'll see that and take action, though.
Judd, in this game, is that stereotypical ass that you love to hate. He's extremely arrogant, mediocre in challenges, and is not afraid to tell people off. Okay, you guys probably just love him for all of those things, but he's beginning to bother me. He's actually been receiving a lot of information, but rather than taking it in, processing it, and using it down the road, he just likes to use it to exploit people now. He essentially told Dylan that he can't trust him, and Dylan doesn't even see that he needs to take out Judd. I think this will be revealed in time, however. Judd is only going to self-destruct, in my opinion. He's a huge blabbermouth, and that's going to be the death of him. Also, blabbermouth is not coming up as wrong in spell check. Score!
Prediction: Early Jury. He'll make merge because he's on the superior tribe, but will be taken out shortly after.
Mary started this game as someone I expected to slut her way into late prejury, and sort of disappear after that. I am pleasantly surprised to be wrong. Mary surprises me every day, and I really think she's going to do heavy damage in this game. Being leader and winning in Round 1 gave her a boost of confidence that was good for her game, but didn't bloat her ego. She's highly analytical, and is the only one to suspect Bob Dawg lying to Coach. That was a huge teller right there that she's a thinker. She updates her confessional frequently, and she's constantly evaluating her position in the game and with others. Her only real enemy is Semhar, who wants her out, but not that badly even. I don't think Mary is viewed as a threat by others in the way that Coach is, and he's on the verge of proposing an F2 to her. I predict their duo to be deadly and dominant. I know what that's like, after all
I think she's incredibly safe on the stronger, blue tribe, and has a solid wall of alliances to protect her throughout this game.Prediction: Winner. Mary is not going to be seen as the threat that she is until it's too late, and I think she'll make a very strong jury case.
Mike is the strangest member of my Sausage Fantasy team, because I don't think he stands out a whole lot as a player. That's sort of why I picked him though. I've watched Clumbze, and for a good part of pre-jury, he turns into this chameleon and sort of disappears. He's somehow managed to do this on vacation, and seems to be in a place where he'll survive the vote when he eventually does go to tribal. I would be worried if his tribe loses this coming round, but I don't think they will. They can sit him out, and he'll be back before the next challenge. Coach will push for Frosti to go, and once he's back, he'll be crazy about reaffirming everything that he had when he left. He hasn't pissed anyone off, because no one blames him for vacation, and he still has a solid connection with most of old Desterrados, as well as the boys of old Gwadatoo. I think he'll find himself in a good position come merge, especially with his good friend Eliza.
Prediction: Late jury. I see him making it just as far as Eliza, really. They'll be taken out around then. He's in a great position now, though.
Red Tribe
This tribe is in trouble. Their members don't mesh because they are evenly split from the other tribes. As a whole, they are much weaker than Blue, and they are now down a member. I don't see many of them living to make merge. Maybe just about four of them.
I'm going to be doing the rest of this tomorrow!
